Australian grains: outlook for 2017-18 and industry productivity

Overview

This report provides a summary of the December 2017 edition of the Australian crop report and the grains sections of the December 2017 edition of Agricultural commodities. The report also includes material from an article on productivity in the Australian grains industry, released in the March 2017 edition of Agricultural commodities.

This report was commissioned by the Grains Research & Development Corporation (GRDC) and will be made available to growers.

Key Issues

World indicator prices of wheat and coarse grains are forecast to rise in 2017-18 as a result of expected lower supplies, while the canola indicator price is forecast to stabilise at 2016-17 levels due to mixed growing conditions in the major exporting countries.

In 2017-18 total winter crop production is forecast to decrease by 41 per cent to 34.9 million tonnes, largely reflecting an expected fall in average yields from the exceptionally high yields of 2016-17.

In 2017-18 total area planted to summer crops is forecast to increase by 13 per cent to 1.5 million hectares, which reflects a more favourable opening to the summer crop season for grain sorghum than in 2016-17. Total summer crop production in 2017-18 is forecast to increase by 23 per cent to around 4.8 million tonnes.

Productivity in the cropping industry grew on average by 1.5 per cent a year between 1977-78 and 2014-15. This was driven by strong output growth (2.6 per cent a year) relative to input growth (1.2 per cent a year).