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Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2016

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Created 29/06/2018

Updated 13/11/2024

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Overview This report contains ABARES' latest forecasts for 2016-17 for Australia's major agricultural commodities. In addition, this publication includes articles on the EU dairy industry and Australia's trade in fresh fruit, tree nuts and vegetables.

Key Issues Commodity forecasts
• The gross value of farm production is forecast to increase by 1.1 per cent to around $58.5 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 6.3 per cent increase to $57.8 billion in 2015-16. At this forecast level, the gross value of farm production in 2016-17 would be around 12 per cent higher than the average of $52 billion over the five years to 2015-16 in nominal terms. • The gross value of livestock production is forecast to stay around $29.8 billion in 2016-17, following an estimated 10.9 per cent increase in 2015-16. • The gross value of crop production is forecast to increase by 2.5 per cent to $28.6 billion in 2016-17, after an estimated increase of 1.8 per cent in 2015-16. This mainly reflects forecast increases in the gross value of sugar, cotton and horticultural production offsetting the forecast decreases in the gross value of grain production. • Export earnings from farm commodities are forecast to be $43.0 billion in 2016-17, 2.5 per cent lower than $44.1 billion in 2015-16. • The agricultural commodities for which export earnings are forecast to rise in 2016-17 are wool (up 6 per cent), sugar (14 per cent), lamb (1 per cent), cotton (21 per cent), canola (12 per cent) and live feeder/slaughter cattle (3 per cent). • Forecast increases in 2016-17 are expected to be more than offset by forecast falls in export earnings for beef and veal (down 9 per cent), wheat (7 per cent), dairy products (6 per cent), barley (2 per cent), chickpeas (43 per cent) and mutton (18 per cent). • Export earnings for fisheries products are forecast to stay around $1.7 billion in 2016-17, after increasing by an estimated 16.7 per cent in 2015-16.

Economic assumptions underlying this set of commodity forecasts

In preparing this set of agricultural commodity forecasts: • World economic growth is assumed to be 2.9 per cent in 2016 and 3.3 per cent in 2017. • Economic growth in Australia is assumed to average 2.5 per cent in 2015-16 and 2016-17. • The Australian dollar is assumed to average US73 cents in 2016-17, largely unchanged from the estimated average for 2015-16.

Articles on agricultural issues

The EU dairy industry
• The EU dairy industry is supported by domestic and trade policies implemented through the Common Agricultural Policy. • Without a change to the existing trade barriers for Australian dairy exports and stronger European demand for imported dairy products generally, Australian exports to that market are unlikely to increase significantly in the short term. Trade in fresh fruit, tree nuts and vegetables
• Australia is a significant net exporter of fresh fruit, fresh vegetables and tree nuts. • Changing diets in Asia's middle class, the depreciation of the Australian dollar and improved market access following the negotiation of several FTAs have supported exports of Australian fresh horticultural produce.

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Additional Info

Field Value
Title Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2016
Language English
Licence Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International
Landing Page https://devweb.dga.links.com.au/data/dataset/18932d0a-81b9-4868-a737-e833925361f9
Contact Point
Australian Bureau of Agriculture and Resource Economics and Sciences
dataman@agriculture.gov.au
Reference Period 21/06/2016
Geospatial Coverage Australia
Data Portal data.gov.au

Data Source

This dataset was originally found on data.gov.au "Agricultural commodities: June quarter 2016". Please visit the source to access the original metadata of the dataset:
https://devweb.dga.links.com.au/data/dataset/pb_agcomd9abcc20160621_5b9fz

Original dataset
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No duplicate datasets found.