The Severe Wind Hazard Assessment for Queensland arose as a project to better understand the potential impacts of tropical cyclones (TCs) on population centres and elements of critical infrastructure in Queensland. The rationale for the project was reinforced by lessons from Severe Tropical Cyclone (STC) Debbie, the direct and indirect impacts of which affected a significant area of Queensland, stretching from Bowen to the City of Gold Coast and Northern New South Wales between 28 March and 7 April 2017, resulting in 14 mostly flood associated deaths, and more than A$3.5 billion in direct losses. The intent of the project is to explore and assess a range of scenarios that extend beyond the contemporary recollection of severe events in order to challenge decision making for rarer but higher-consequence events. The scenarios described in the report can be used to improve planning for severe tropical cyclone (TC) events and their impacts. This includes developing a better understanding of how the capabilities of emergency services and supporting elements may be impacted in actual events.
Scenarios were selected from the catalogue of synthetic events (i.e. events that did not actually occur but whose occurrence was as probable as those that did occur) generated for the 2018 Tropical Cyclone Hazard Assessment (TCHA; Arthur, 2018), in consultation with Queensland Fire and Emergency Services (QFES) and those local governments involved within the project. Two TC events were modelled for each location for this project – a Category 3 and a Category 5 TC -with ‘favourable’ tracks for impact analysis. In all scenarios, consideration was given to regional historical analogues for the selected synthetic tracks to better relate the scenario outputs to known or “lived” events. These categories were chosen as they represent events with a moderate and very low likelihood with respect to intensity, based on historical observations. This also accounts for the future climate of less TCs but more intense occurrences, highlighting the different impacts arising from different events. It is important to emphasise and understand that each individual TC event will be different and lead to different impacts.
